One of the recurring rebuttals to Donald Trump’s endless claims that the 2020 election was stolen was that — contrary to his insinuations — swing-state cities were not hotbeds of voter fraud. In fact, they often supported Joe Biden at smaller margins than they had Hillary Clinton four years before.

That change in some of the most racially diverse places in the country, combined with the shift in heavily Hispanic parts of the country to Trump, were early hints that the conventional wisdom about race and party was being undercut. In the years since, we’ve seen more evidence that Black and Hispanic Americans in particular are less hostile to the Republican Party and Trump than they used to be.

The question, then, is how much less? And — specifically for Democrats looking toward November — how alarming is that shift for Biden’s reelection campaign?Sign up for How To Read This Chart, a weekly data newsletter from Philip Bump

Last month, Gallup released data showing how the two-party margin between Black and Hispanic Americans had shifted dramatically since 2020. In 2020, Black Americans were 66 points more […]

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